the industrialization bubble

This essay scared the crap out of me. And it’s not about Bush.

I’ve kind of tuned out internet (and other) buzz lately, due to work and other commitments taking up a lot of time. So maybe I’m the last to hear about Peak Oil theory, the fact that some experts think we’ve already passed the peak of global oil production, most think we’re at least pretty close to it, and the changes this could bring about in our lifetimes.

The theory is basically this: oil discovery and production follow a bell curve. The industrialized age that preceded us saw the rise to the top of the curve, and now we're staring down the other side. The implication is that as supply decreases (and it will likely decrease much more rapidly than it increased, given increased population), prices will increase – so much so that we eventually won’t be able to afford to drive our cars, ship our food, fly our planes, operate our factories, and so on. As for renewable/alternative energy, nothing so far proposed would be scalable and efficient enough to sustain a fully industrialized society (though organizations like Local Energy of Santa Fe, NM give some hope of at least being able to keep the lights on). The range of views on the subject goes from “hogwash – private industry and market forces will solve the problem somehow; after all, it always has” to “the Mad Max films clearly depicted what our lives will be like by, say, about 4pm tomorrow afternoon.” As anyone who knows me knows, I tend to find myself in the latter sort of camp. But even if I resist my immediate urge trade my life in San Francisco for a life on a cooperative farm in, say, the Pacific Northwest, I think it’s clear that if the theory is correct, then we’re going experience – during our lifetimes – a pretty uncomfortable decline in our standard of living accompanied by an equally disturbing rise in both class and military warfare over scarce resources.

While I want to attribute my sense of dread to a hyper-sensitivity to all things apocalyptic -- a sensitivity instilled in me by the few years I spent as a Christian fundamentalist in early adolescence -- the scenario seems pretty realistic. As with the question of whether or not our nation has already crossed the line into a "soft" but irreversible fascism, there's just no way to peel back the layers of personal mythology to reveal a clear and unembellished picture beneath. We won't know for sure until "it" does or doesn't happen.

What inspires a small amount of hope about many of these scenarios is that a return to local community organization and cooperation appears to offer some insurance against utter misery. For example, as shipping costs rise, luxuries like grocery store will gradually disappear. Maybe during our lifetimes, maybe not -- but certainly within a couple of generations -- we'll have to work with our neighbors, literally, in order to feed ourselves. To the socialist in me, that doesn't sound too bad. Especially if we start learning how to do it now, before necessity forces us it upon us.

If you're interested in reading further, here are a couple of links:

Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas (ASPO)
peakoil.org
Peak Oil news & message boards